Defending Good Science

November, 2004

Hysteria is contagious

Have you had your flu shot yet?

Statistically, chances are good that unless you’re a medical health care worker, you have not.  In fact, if you’re in the United States or Canada, you’re besieged right now with two things – election ads and news stories about the lack of an available influenza vaccine for Americans.

Normally, the lack of an optional, preventative vaccine won't cause concern – certainly not to the degree we’ve seen to date.  In fact, conspiracy theories have existed for years that the flu shot is dangerous, or will make you sick. This year, it’s different…

• In a development which proves common sense isn’t as common as we may think, the Associated Press reported people were lining up overnight, in order to get a flu vaccination.  The US Department of Health and Human Services had to warn people that standing in line, “may pose a greater risk for health for some seniors than the flu would itself." 
 
• The President of the Canadian Medical Association, Albert Schumacher, has warned members of the medical community in Canada to avoid treating Americans looking for a flu shot, over concerns vaccines purchased with public funds for Canadian citizens will go to the wrong people. 
 
• And in a story which boggles even my creative imagination, a Russian ‘expert’ has been quoted in the European media, claiming that one billion people may die in the next six months from influenza, due to a critical shortage in the USA.  If the lineups outside clinics weren’t already bad enough, this story won’t calm an upset public.

Conflicting messages make the situation even more confusing.  In Ontario, Canada, the Ministry of Health is urging people to “protect yourself and the people around you by getting a free flu shot. And this year, it's never been easier.”  But medical advice differs based on what border you live across, since US health officials are telling healthy people between the ages of 2 and 64 to “skip getting a shot this season.” 

Border politics notwithstanding, what does it all mean?  Realistically – not much…  assuming for a minute that ‘experts’ from Russia are wrong and that 1/5th of the worlds population isn’t going to die of influenza in the next 6 months.

The Centre for Disease Control says more people will die this year than last – which would make this year no different than the year before.  Flu deaths have been steadily rising over the past decade.  The primary reason?  We’re getting older.  With the number of people aged 85 or older doubling over the past several decades, CDC partially attributes the increase in deaths from influenza to a general aging of the population.

For years, CDC quoted numbers of 20,000 deaths annually across the USA, but due to new statistical methods, they’re reporting the numbers may now be closer to 36,000.   Rest assured that a lazy reporter will see the disparity in numbers and report that flu deaths rose 80% this year.  This, of course, will be wrong.

Longer term, a shortage may actually be good news for the state of public health in North America, since it creates a demand. The stage the anti-flu shot activists are riding on is steadily shrinking, and they may soon be consigned to the dustbins of history – right beside the anti-fluoride and anti-chlorine folks.

Link of the Month

www.agbioworld.com is an interesting collection of news articles, information campaigns and advocacy appeals related to the international adoption of biotechnology. 

They have an e-newsletter which goes out about 3 or 4 times a week with headlines & stories related to biotech acceptance.

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